THE FERTILITY MOTIVATIONS OF YOUTH PREDICT LATER FERTILITY OUTCOMES: A PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF NLSY DATA

摘要

We examine how the motivational sequence that leads to childbearing predicts fertility outcomes across reproductive careers. Using a motivational traits-desires-intentions theoretical framework, we test a structural equation model using prospective male and female data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Specifically, we take motivational data collected during the 1979–1982 period, when the youths were in their teens and early twenties, to predict the timing of the next child born after 1982 and the total number of children born by 2002. Separate models were estimated for males and females but with equality constraints imposed unless relaxing these constraints improved the overall model fit. The results indicate substantial explanatory power of fertility motivations for both short-term and long-term fertility outcomes. They also reveal the effects of both gender role attitude and educational intentions on these outcomes. Although some sex differences in model pathways occurred, the primary hypothesized pathways were essentially the same across the sexes. Two validity substudies support the soundness of the results. A third substudy comparing the male and female models across the sample split on the basis of previous childbearing revealed a number of pattern differences within the four sex-by-previous childbearing groups. Several of the more robust of these pattern differences offer interesting insights and support the validity and usefulness of our theoretical framework.