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A Few Bad Apples: A Model of Disease Influenced Agent Behaviour in a Heterogeneous Contact Environment

机译:几个坏苹果:在异质接触环境中疾病影响代理行为的模型

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摘要

For diseases that infect humans or livestock, transmission dynamics are at least partially dependent on human activity and therefore human behaviour. However, the impact of human behaviour on disease transmission is relatively understudied, especially in the context of heterogeneous contact structures such as described by a social network. Here, we use a strategic game, coupled with a simple disease model, to investigate how strategic agent choices impact the spread of disease over a contact network. Using beliefs that are based on disease status and that build up over time, agents choose actions that stochastically determine disease spread on the network. An agent’s disease status is therefore a function of both his own and his neighbours actions. The effect of disease on agents is modelled by a heterogeneous payoff structure. We find that the combination of network shape and distribution of payoffs has a non-trivial impact on disease prevalence, even if the mean payoff remains the same. An important scenario occurs when a small percentage (called noncooperators) have little incentive to avoid disease. For diseases that are easily acquired when taking a risk, then even when good behavior can lead to disease eradication, a small increase in the percentage of noncooperators (less than 5%) can yield a large (up to 25%) increase in prevalence.
机译:对于感染人类或牲畜的疾病,传播动态至少部分取决于人类活动,因此也取决于人类行为。但是,人们的行为对疾病传播的影响却相对未被充分研究,尤其是在诸如社交网络所描述的异构接触结构的情况下。在这里,我们使用战略游戏以及简单的疾病模型来研究战略因素的选择如何影响疾病在联系网络上的传播。使用基于疾病状态并随着时间而建立的信念,代理可以选择随机决定网络上疾病传播的措施。因此,行为人的疾病状况取决于他自己和邻居的行为。疾病对病原体的影响通过异质收益结构来建模。我们发现,即使平均收益保持不变,网络形状和收益分布的组合也对疾病的患病率具有重要影响。当一小部分人(称为非合作者)几乎没有动机避免疾病时,就会发生一种重要的情况。对于冒险时容易感染的疾病,即使良好的行为可以导致疾病根除,不合作者的比例略有增加(少于5%)也可以使患病率大大提高(最多25%)。

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  • 年(卷),期 -1(10),3
  • 年度 -1
  • 页码 e0118127
  • 总页数 14
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