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Characterizing the International Migration Barriers with a Probabilistic Multilateral Migration Model

机译:用概率性多边移民模型表征国际移民壁垒

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摘要

Human migration is responsible for forming modern civilization and has had an important influence on the development of various countries. There are many issues worth researching, and “the reason to move” is the most basic one. The concept of migration cost in the classical self-selection theory, which was introduced by Roy and Borjas, is useful. However, migration cost cannot address global migration because of the limitations of deterministic and bilateral choice. Following the idea of migration cost, this paper developed a new probabilistic multilateral migration model by introducing the Boltzmann factor from statistical physics. After characterizing the underlying mechanism or driving force of human mobility, we reveal some interesting facts that have provided a deeper understanding of international migration, such as the negative correlation between migration costs for emigrants and immigrants and a global classification with clear regional and economic characteristics, based on clustering of migration cost vectors. In addition, we deconstruct the migration barriers using regression analysis and find that the influencing factors are complicated but can be partly (12.5%) described by several macro indexes, such as the GDP growth of the destination country, the GNI per capita and the HDI of both the source and destination countries.
机译:人口迁移负责形成现代文明,对各国的发展产生了重要影响。有许多值得研究的问题,“行动的原因”是最基本的问题。 Roy和Borjas提出的经典自我选择理论中的迁移成本概念很有用。但是,由于确定性和双边选择的局限性,迁移成本无法解决全球迁移问题。遵循迁移成本的思想,本文通过引入统计物理学中的玻尔兹曼因子,开发了一种新的概率多边迁移模型。在描述了人口流动的基本机制或驱动力之后,我们揭示了一些有趣的事实,这些事实使人们对国际移民有了更深入的了解,例如,移民和移民的移民成本之间的负相关关系以及具有明确的地区和经济特征的全球分类,基于迁移成本向量的聚类。此外,我们使用回归分析来解构移民壁垒,发现影响因素很复杂,但可以部分地(12.5%)由几个宏观指标来描述,例如目的地国的GDP增长,人均国民总收入和人类发展指数。来源国和目的地国。

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