The long-term trend of extreme ocean waves in the emerging ice-free waters of the summer Arctic is studied using ERA-Interim wave reanalysis, with validation by two drifting wave buoys deployed in summer 2016. The 38-year-long reanalysis dataset reveals an increase in the expected largest significant wave height from 2.3 m to 3.1 m in the ice-free water from the Laptev to the Beaufort Seas during October. The trend is highly correlated with the expected increase in highest wind speed from 12.0 m/s to 14.2 m/s over the ice-free ocean, and less so with the extent of the ice-free water. Since the storms in this area did not strengthen throughout the analysis period, the increase in the expected largest significant wave height follows from the enhanced probability of storms in ice-free waters, which is pertinent to the estimation of extreme sea conditions along the Northern Sea Route.
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机译：利用ERA-临时波再分析技术，研究了北极夏季夏季无冰水域中极端海浪的长期趋势，并通过2016年夏季部署的两个漂流浮标进行了验证。这一长达38年的再分析数据集揭示了从Laptev到Beaufort Seas的无冰水中预期最大最大波高从2.3µm增加到3.1µm。这种趋势与预计的无冰海洋最高风速从12.0 m / s增加到14.2 m / s高度相关，而与无冰水量的相关性则较小。由于该地区的风暴在整个分析期间并未加强，因此预期最大最大波高的增加归因于无冰水域中风暴的可能性增加，这与估计北海沿岸极端海况有关路线。
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