Progress toward Global Reduction in Under-Five Mortality: A Bootstrap Analysis of Uncertainty in Millennium Development Goal 4 Estimates

摘要

BackgroundMillennium Development Goal 4 calls for an annual rate of reduction (ARR) of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 4.4% between 1990 and 2015. Progress is measured through the point estimates of the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME). To facilitate evidence-based conclusions about progress toward the goal, we assessed the uncertainty in the estimates arising from sampling errors and biases in data series and the inferior quality of specific data series.