云南5岁以下儿童死亡率趋势及千年发展目标分析

摘要

Objective To analyze the mortality trend of children under five years old in Yunnan Province during 2000-2014 and to discuss the effect of the Millennium Development Goals.Methods The dynamic change of the mortality of children under 5 year old in Yunnan was analyzed with time series curve fitting method based on death monitoring,regular reports and the census data,and average decline rate of the mortality was calculated.Results From 2000 to 2014,the average decline rate of NMR,IMR and U5MR was 92.00% revealed both by death monitoring and regular reports.The average reduction was 7.73%-7.77% per year,which achieved one of the Millennium Development Goals(MDG4)of reducing mortality to two thirds from 1990 to 2015.Conclusion The Millennium Development Goals of reducing children mortality has been achieved ahead of schedule,but there is still great gap on mortality rate between urban and rural areas.%目的 分析2000-2014年云南省5岁以下儿童的死亡趋势,探讨千年发展目标的成效.方法 根据云南省5岁以下儿童死亡监测、常规报告、人口普查资料,采用时间序列曲线拟合方法,分析云南省5岁以下儿童死亡率的动态变化,计算出5岁以下儿童死亡率平均下降速度.结果 2000-2014年无论监测或常规资料,新生儿死亡率(NMR)、婴儿死亡率(IMR)、5岁以下儿童死亡率(U5MR)的平均下降速度均为92.00%;平均每年降低7.73%~7.77%,实现了千年发展目标之四(MDG4)"从1990-2015年间,将5岁以下儿童死亡率降低2/3"的计划.结论 云南省提前实现了千年发展目标中降低儿童死亡率的目标,但城乡和区域之间儿童死亡率仍存在显著差距.