The dynamics of food chains under climate change and nutrient enrichment

摘要

Warming has profound effects on biological rates such as metabolism, growth, feeding and death of organisms, eventually affecting their ability to survive. Using a nonlinear bioenergetic population-dynamic model that accounts for temperature and body-mass dependencies of biological rates, we analysed the individual and interactive effects of increasing temperature and nutrient enrichment on the dynamics of a three-species food chain. At low temperatures, warming counteracts the destabilizing effects of enrichment by both bottom-up (via the carrying capacity) and top-down (via biological rates) mechanisms. Together with increasing consumer body masses, warming increases the system tolerance to fertilization. Simultaneously, warming increases the risk of starvation for large species in low-fertility systems. This effect can be counteracted by increased fertilization. In combination, therefore, two main drivers of global change and biodiversity loss can have positive and negative effects on food chain stability. Our model incorporates the most recent empirical data and may thus be used as the basis for more complex forecasting models incorporating food-web structure.