基于Fisher最优分割法的汛期分期

摘要

针对传统汛期分期方法中常用的数理统计法、模糊集合分析法存在的主观性强、指标单一化的缺点和不足，提出了利用Fisher最优分割法进行汛期分期。以太平水库为例，选择能反映水库流域暴雨洪水季节性规律的4个指标，利用Fisher最优分割法计算目标函数，最终确定汛期分期，并与传统方法进行比较。结果表明，该方法可以适用于汛期分期，与传统方法相比具有一定的优越性。%The current flood season division often uses mathematical statistics method and fuzzy set analysis method,either of them has strong subjectivity and single index. In order to overcome these shortcomings,the principle and steps of Fisher optimal partition method has been put forward. Taking Taiping Reservoir as an example and choosing 4 indexes which could reflect the seasonal rules of rainstorm and flood,the objective functions could be calculated by using Fisher optimal partition method. Finally,the flood season division could be determined. Compared with common methods,it is better and superior for the new method to apply to flood season division.