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基于相关系数和Fisher最优分割法的汛期分期研究

         

摘要

Based on the theory of runoff generation, we put forward a basic idea of using the correlation coefficient of rainfall-runoff as indicators of flood season division. Based on daily rainfall and daily flow data from 1954 to 2007 in the Shitouhe Reservoir of Shaanxi Province, the principal component analysis was used to analyze the factors and filter the main factors influencing time-interval runoff. Then, the correlation coefficient was calculated between the main factors and time-interval runoff, and the optimum partition method of Fisher was used to divide the flood season of the Shitouhe Reservoir. As a result, the flood season in the Shitouhe Reservoir was divided into fore-flood transition period (April l~May 20), fore-flood period (May 21-July 10), main flood period (July ll~August 10), post-flood period (August 11-September 20) and post-flood transition period (September 21-October 31). Additionally, the rational demonstration was made based on the local climatology characteristics and the actual floods.%从径流形成原理出发,提出了采用降雨径流相关系数作为汛期分期指标的基本思路.以陕西省石头河水库1954~2007年的日降水和日流量资料为基础,采用主成分分析法对影响时段径流的因素进行了分析,筛选出了影响不同时段径流量的主要因素,计算了主要影响因素与时段径流量的相关系数,采用Fisher最优分割法将石头河水库汛期划分为汛前过渡期(4月1日~5月20日)、前汛期(5月21日~7月10日)、主汛期(7月11日~8月10日)、后汛期(8月11日~9月20日)和汛后过渡期(9月21日~10月31日),并结合区域气候特点和实际发生的洪水对成果进行了合理性论证.该方法资料要求低,计算简便,具有一定的推广应用价值.

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