Fisher最优分割法在澄碧河水库汛期分期中的应用

摘要

在深入分析澄碧河流域汛期变化特性的基础上,以澄碧河水库为例,选取暴雨日数、旬平均雨量、旬最大3天雨量、旬多年平均入库流量、年最大洪峰出现次数等5个指标,采用Fisher最优分割法进行汛期分期研究,将汛期分为前汛期、主汛期和后汛期3个时期.结果表明,Fisher最优分割法不仅能够考虑多个指标,而且能够有效避免常规方法在阈值选取和最优分期数目确定上存在主观性强的缺点;与之前对澄碧河水库分期的相关结果对比,该方法则更为客观科学,分期结果也更加合理可靠.%Taking Chengbihe Reservoir as a study example,five indicators of rainstorm days,ten-day mean rainfall,biggest three days rainfall in a period of ten days,ten-day average inflow for years and times of flood peak every year are introduced to calculate flood season of Chengbihe Reservoir by adopting Fisher optimal partition method based on the analysis of flood season characteristics of Chengbihe Basin.The flood season is divided three periods of pre-flood season,main-flood season and postflood season.The results show that the Fisher optimal partition method can not only consider multiple indicators,but also can effectively avoid the subjectivity in the selection of threshold and optimal number of dividing.Comparing with the results of other study methods,the Fisher optimal partition method is more objective and scientific and the results are more reasonable and believable.