[目的]揭示棉花产量与棉花叶面积指数( LAI)、归一化植被指数(NDVI)相关关系,辨识新疆北疆棉花遥感估产最佳时相,建立棉花产量与LAI及NDVI间的多元复合遥感估产模型,为大面积棉花生产管理和估产提供理论参考.[方法]以TM影像为数据源,结合实地调查的棉花LAI、NDVI和产量等数据,对影像数据进行校正,最后用统计学方法分析棉花指数与产量数据间关系和建模.[结果]棉花LAI在各生育期呈先升后降的趋势,花铃期最高,均值为3.69；棉花NDVI在各生育期基本处于稳定的较高水平,棉花生长旺盛,长势较好；棉花蕾期和花铃期LAI与产量呈极显著正相关,花铃期相关系数最高,达到0.75；新疆北疆棉花最佳估产时相为花铃期,最优估产模型为Y=17.76 LAI - 123.05 NDVI +232.15.[结论]利用LAI和NDVI建立多元复合估产模型能有效提高棉花的估产精度.%[Objective]The aims of this study were to analyze the correlation between yield and leaf area index (LAI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of cotton and select the optimum temporal for cotton yield estimation in northern Xinjiang in order to provide theoretical reference for cotton production, management and yield estimation in large area. [ Method ]TM image data were combined with the field survey data, including LAI, NDVI and yield data to adjust or correct the image data. Finally, the correlation between cotton yield and vegetation indexes was analyzed by statistical methods and a model was established. [Result] Cotton LAI tends to increase firstly and then decrease along with each growing period, and the biggest value appeared in blooming and fruiting stage, with the average value 3. 69; Cotton NDVI shows a stable characteristics totally, with related high value in every growing period, which means that cotton grows well; cotton yield was positively and significantly correlated with LAI in bud stage and in the following blooming and fruiting stage; the highest correlation coefficient reaches 0. 75 in the latter stage; The best temporal of cotton yield estimation in northern Xinjiang is in the blooming and fruiting stage, and the optimum multiple element yield es-timation model is Y - 17.76LAI - 123.05NDVI +232. 15. [ Conclusion] Cotton yield estimation model established by employing LAI and NDVI could improve the model accuracy effectively.
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