基于故障树分析法的地铁主变电所可靠性量化与评估

摘要

地铁主变电所的安全可靠直接影响地铁供电系统的稳定运行,其可靠性量化与评估研究对衡量、评价当前供电系统的运行模式至关重要.针对地铁主变电所系统结构及运行方式,结合各层级关键设备基础数据,以故障树分析法构建主变所故障树模型,并分别计算此故障树的最小割集及最小径集集合;计算并评估划分关键设备对主所级系统的概率重要度,进而计算出顶层事件(主变电所退出)的失效概率.可为地铁供电系统整体可靠性的量化分析与评估奠定基础,并为运营维护决策提供依据.%Safety and reliability of the main subway substation directly affect the stable operation of power supply system, and the reliability quantification and assessment is very important in measuring and evaluating the operating conditions of the current power supply system. Aiming at the system structure and operation mode of the main subway substation, and combined with the basic data of key equipment at all levels, a fault tree model of the main substation is constructed based on FTA analysis, which is used to calculate the minimal cut set and the minimum path set of the fault tree respectively, and to assess the probabilistic importance of key equipment for the main substation system, and then is used to calculate the failure probability of the top event. This research will lay a foundation for the overall reliability quantification, system evaluation and maintenance decision of subway power supply system.