以规则网格为评价单元,采用因素组合法对耕地自然质量限制因素进行分析;采用热点分析法对耕地利用水平指标进行局部聚类;并分别测算限制因素改变和利用水平指标提升后的耕地质量变化.以河北省涿州市为研究区进行研究,结果表明:灌溉保证率是涿州市耕地自然质量的限制因素,经改善灌溉条件的耕地自然等指数可平均提升408.涿州市耕地整体利用水平相差较大,可依据热点分析结果提出相应的耕地平整、修建沟渠或田间道路等工程措施,改善土地利用条件,提高耕地利用等指数.综合整治潜力呈现东西低、中部高的分布特点.所提出的耕地整治质量潜力测算方法有助于确定耕地质量限制因素、划分耕地整治区域及指明整治方向.%Land consolidation can excavate the potential of arable land quality effectively.In order to calculate the potential of arable land quality scientifically and reasonably and guide corresponding land consolidation projects,a new method was proposed based on limiting factors and hot spot analysis.Zhuozhou city was chosen as the study area for experiment with space grid as basic unit.Firstly,element association method was used to analyze factors influencing arable land natural quality.Secondly,an index system was established to response to arable land utilization level and calculated one by one,and then hot spot analysis was adopted to find low values cluster area.Thirdly,land consolidation projects were carried out to figure out the influence of changes of limiting factors and improvement of indicator values.Eventually,potential of arable land quality was calculated to examine the effects after limiting factors changing and indicator values improving.The results showed that physical quality grade index could be improved by an average of 408.Irrigation was the top limiting factor of arable land natural quality and the overall utilization levels of arable lands in Zhuozhou city were varied widely with the characteristics of both eastern and western areas being higher than that of the central region.It was put forward to carry out water-saving irrigation in low irrigation areas and to carry out corresponding measures in cold spot cluster areas,such as building arable land roads,arable land shelterbelts and irrigation systems.Statistically significant cold spots of arable land space form score located in north-central areas,these areas should strengthen arable land leveling.Statistically significant cold spots of rural roads located in northern and western areas,these areas should be recommended to strengthen the construction of roads.Statistically significant cold spots of ditches throughout the central region of Zhuozhou,from south to north,these areas should strengthen the construction of ditch.The method proposed was helpful to determine the limiting factors,divide zones of arable land consolidation and provide relevant measures.The result was an important gist for regional land consolidation planning,land consolidation project as well as land consolidation zone dividing.
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