城市电网规划自然灾害风险评价研究

摘要

近年来，自然灾害给电网带来了巨大的损失。如何科学评价自然灾害对电网及其带来的社会经济影响是城市电网规划风险评价中急需研究的课题。本文总结分析了我国自然灾害对电网造成的破坏及影响，并基于风险评价理论和信息扩散理论，建立了自然灾害发生的概率及对电网影响的风险评价模型。算例表明，该方法具有可行性，能为考虑自然灾害风险的电网规划提供决策依据。%Natural disasters have caused tremendous losses to the power grid in recent years. Now the urgent need of research on risk assessment in urban electric power network planning is how to scientifically assess the socio-economic impact on the city power and the society. Firstly, the damage and impact of power grid caused by natural disasters are summarized in this paper; then risk assessment model about the probability of occurrence of natural disasters and the impact on grid is established based on the information diffusion theory. Results of the case study prove that the proposed method can be suitable to adopt in risk assessment and provide a basis for decision of urban network planning considering the natural disaster risks.