A study on dynamic evaluation of urban integrated natural disaster risk based on vague set and information axiom

摘要

This study presents a dynamic assessment model of urban integrated disaster risk. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of the integrated risk assessment, the model is proposed based on vague sets, information axiom, and comprehensive assessment method with the speed characteristics. Firstly, the integrated risk evaluation index system is determined on analysis of the risk factors. Evaluation indexes are quantified using vague sets. Secondly, information value of each index is calculated based on information axiom. The total information value of natural disaster risk is derived. The developing trend of natural disaster risk over the years is obtained. Finally, the dynamic evaluation on urban integrated natural disaster risk is conducted, in which change speed state and change speed tendency are syncretized. The model was applied to integrated natural disaster risk assessment in Dalian city, and the results showed that the integrated risk in Dalian city has presented a wavelike downward trend over the past 10 years. The model can more fully measure the change speed of the object to be assessed in the multi-period. The example verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of this method, and the method can provide a way for the realization of the integrated disaster risk assessment.