基于水下航行器专用保障设备研制进度紧、经费有限、样机数量有限、试验数据极少,不足以支持设备可靠性考核和评估的现状,提出了单台件设备可靠性评估方法.首先,分析了设备研制中可供评估使用的数据,提出了利用研制中的可靠性预计数据和相似设备数据作为先验数据进行可靠性评估.其次,利用先验矩法,确定失效率的共轭先验分布伽马分布Ga(a,b)中超参数a、b的值,然后在此基础上确定设备总的等效试验时间和故障数,以进行可靠性评估.最后,以单台件设备数据为例进行了应用分析,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.%Facing the current status that the development time of special support equipment of an undersea vehicle, the fund, the number of prototypes, and the test data are all insufficient for supporting reliability evaluation of the equipment, a reliability evaluation method for single equipment is proposed. On the basis of analyzing the data, which are available for evaluation from the development process of the equipment, it is suggested that the reliability prediction data and the data of similar equipment be taken as the priori data for the reliability evaluation. And the priori moment method is em-ployed to determines the values of the super-parametersa andb in the conjugate priori distributionGa(a,b) of failure rate. Then, the total equivalent test time and failure number of the equipment are determined for reliability evaluation. Finally, an example of single equipment data is analyzed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed me-thod.
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