技术进步视角下回弹效应测算的改进模型

摘要

运用门槛回归和潜在产出法分别改进了基于能源增强型技术进步和广义技术进步的回弹效应测算模型.基于改进前后的模型并利用1997—2015年中国省级面板数据测算中国的回弹效应.结果表明:改进后的模型考虑了经济增长与能源消耗的非线性关系以及技术效率对经济增长的影响,测算得出的回弹效应更精确;由能源增强型技术进步诱发的回弹效应呈上升趋势,广义技术进步诱发的回弹效应表现出剧烈波动的特征.认为政府应逐步建立回弹效应监控体系以有效控制回弹效应.%This paper respectively improves the measurement models for rebound effect based on energy-enhanced technology progress and based on generalized technology progress by the threshold regression and potential output method.Then it uses the Chinese provincial panel data from 1997 to 2015 to calculate the rebound effects of China by the improved models.The results show as follows:the improved models consider-ing the nonlinear relationship between economic growth and energy consumption and the impact of technical efficiency on economic growth esti-mate the rebound effect more accurately;the rebound effect caused by energy-enhanced technology progress is on the rise,while the rebound effect induced by generalized technology progress is characterized by severe fluctuations.The government should gradually establish the rebound effect monitoring system to control the rebound effect effectively.