基于 GSADF 方法的中国猪肉价格泡沫检验

摘要

Wild fluctuation of pork price has challenged the economy social order.Based on the GSADFA method that put forwarded by Phillips et al,this paper inspect the pork price bubble in different regions of China from January 2000 to December 2014.This method has a high potential in diagnosis of periodic inspection explosion foams and monitor the duration of bubble.The result demonstrates the regional pork price bubble concentrated in 2003-2004,2007-2008 and 201 1.The blindness of pig breeding, information asymmetry and animal disease are the main reasons that cause the dislocation of pork supply and demand,super-currency,domestic and international capital access the pig aquaculture and other factors,which all may lead volatility of pork price and form the foam.%猪肉价格剧烈波动对经济、社会秩序提出了挑战。基于 Phillips 等人提出的 GSADF 检验方法考察了中国各地区2000年1月至2014年12月间猪肉价格泡沫问题。该方法在诊断周期性爆炸泡沫方面具有较高的检验势，并能监测泡沫持续时间。研究结果显示，中国各地区猪肉价格泡沫集中发生在2003—2004年、2007—2008年和2011年；生猪养殖的盲目性、信息不对称和动物疫情导致猪肉供求错位，货币超发以及国内外资本进入生猪养殖业等因素均能导致猪肉价格剧烈波动，形成泡沫。