人口惯性和生育政策选择:国际比较及启示

摘要

生育政策调整时机的选择折射了一国政府对人口内在规律的把握程度.本研究详细分析了深陷超低生育水平的欧洲和东亚国家生育政策调整时间与本国生育水平、人口惯性变化的关系.研究结果表明,低生育率持续20年所带来的负面影响才能引起足够重视,鼓励生育的政策需要较长时期执行才能显示出效果,而人口惯性为各国政府变革生育政策提供了判断的预警线,人口惯性为1.15进行调整比较理想."十三五"时期是我国构建友好型生育政策体系、提高生育率的战略窗口期,否则将面临生育率失去弹性、人口负增长惯性强化的双重危机.%The timing selection of fertility policy adjustment reflects the governments' understanding of intrinsic demographic rules.The paper analyses the relationship between the timing of fertility policy adjustment and the fertility rate, population momentum in the European and East Asian countries trapped in lowest low fertility.The results shows the negative impacts only can be recognized by government 20 years after the low fertility rate while the fertility policy to encouraging fertility rate only can be effected after a long time of the policy implementation.Population momentum offers the forewarning line of fertility policy adjustment and the ideal fertility policy adjustment is at the window of Population momentum 1.15, otherwise the country may face the crisis in low elasticity of fertility policy adjustment to raise the too-lower fertility rate and strengthening negative effect of population momentum.