基于因子分析法构建世界优秀女子沙滩排球运动员运动成绩回归模型

摘要

目的：探讨世界女子沙滩排球运动员基本情况、运动技术与综合实力（因子得分）之间的关系；构建综合实力（因子得分）与运动成绩间最优模型。方法：以2012年伦敦奥运会女子沙滩排球项目所有参赛的24对（共计48名）运动员为研究对象，采用因子分析法探讨运动员基本情况、运动技术与综合实力（因子得分）之间的关系，采用回归法构建综合实力（因子得分）与运动成绩间最优模型。结果：（1）基本技术因子、主动得分因子、基本条件因子和体型因子分别占世界女子沙滩排球运动员基本情况、运动技术构成比例的49.9%，13.8%，12.7%和11.3%。（2）对三个回归模型和模型偏回归系数进行检验，发现因子得分3和因子得分4不能被引入模型。结论：（1）世界女子沙滩排球运动员基本情况、运动技术构成主要体现在基本技术因子和主动得分因子。（2）综合实力（因子得分）与运动成绩间的最优回归模型应以因子得分1和因子得分2为自变量，奥运名次为因变量来构建的多元线性回归方程。%Objective:To investigate the relationships between basic condition, Sport technique, And comprehensive capability (component score) of world-class female beach volleyball players and to construct the optimal model between comprehensive capability (component score) and sport performance. Methods: Taking the examples of 24 pairs (totally 48 players) of female beach volleyball players of the 2012 London Olympic Games and by using the factor analysis method, this paper discussed the relationships between basic condition, sport technique, And comprehensive capability. And by regression model, this paper tried to construct the optimal model between comprehensive capability (component score) and sport performance. Results:(1) Basic technical factor, initiative score factor, basic condition factor and somatotype factor respectively accounted for 49.9%, 13.8%, 12.7 and 11.3% of the component proportion of the basic condition and sport technique of the world-class female beach volleyball players. (2) The three regression models constructed and model partial regression coefficients were tested and it was confirmed the component score 3 and component score 4 cannot be introduced into models. Conclusions:(1) The component of basic condition and sport technique of the world-class female beach volleyball players mainly embodied in the basic technical factor and the initiative score factor. (2) The optimal regression model between the comprehensive capability (component score) and sport performance was a multiple linear regression equation which should take component score 1 and component score 2 as independent variables, and take the Olympic ranks as dependent variable.