基于马尔可夫过程船舶电力系统可靠性仿真分析

摘要

Reliability is essential to ship and is researched in this paper. A capacity model of power generation system reflecting the nature of practical situations is established. Markov Process is adopted and appropriate simulation method is selected to simulate the probability distribution curve of power load, with MATLAB being used. By applying the method of loss of load probability (LOLP) innovatively in the ship power system and combining with capacity model and load model, the reliable index of power generation system is derived,which is helpful to perfect functions of power management system (PMS) and improve the safety and economic operation level of power system. The research provides reference for the capacity, number of sets and preventive maintenance of marine generator.%船舶可靠性至关重要,该文采用马尔可夫过程,从接近实际情况出发,建立有别于以往的船舶发电系统的容量模型;从概率论出发,利用MATLAB,选择合适的模拟方法,模拟出电力负荷概率分布曲线,快速地建立负荷模型.创新性地应用电力不足概率法(LOLP)于船舶电力系统中,结合容量模型与负荷模型,得出船舶发电系统可靠性指标,为船舶发电机组的容量、台数以及预防性维修提供参考,有助于完善能量管理系统(PMS)功能,提高电力系统安全与经济运行水平.