中国造船业景气指数设计及实证研究

摘要

目前我国已经是全球第一造船大国,但还缺乏一套反映我国船舶工业运行情况的指数体系.论文的研究以设计中国造船业景气指数为目标,应用经济景气分析理论,结合船舶工业特点,构建中国造船业景气先行指数和同步指数,客观监测中国船舶工业经济运行状况;并对行业运行风险进行预警,以便支撑行业管理部门、造船企事业单位、金融机构和行业中介组织等更好地把握船舶市场和产业运行状态.%China has the largest shipbuilding power in the world,but is still without an index system reflecting the rtmning situation of the shipbuilding industry.In this study,we aim to design cycles monitoring index for China's shipbuilding industry on the basis of economic cycle theory.Both leading and synchronous cycles monitoring indexes are formed,which could monitor the overall operation and give an early warning for potential risk of the industry.The research may play an important role in catching the operating status of the shipbuilding industry for management departments,enterprises,financial institutions,trade intermediary organizations,etc.