Industry Interdependence Dynamics and Structure Change Causal Analysis: An Empirical Study on China’s Shipbuilding Industry

摘要

Based on empirical evidence from Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Circum-Bohai-Sea region, this study applies the Input-Output (I-O) model and ArcGIS to analyze the interdependence and its dynamic evolution of the shipbuilding industry. In order to study the change cause of shipbuilding industrial structure, we decompose the I-O model to obtain the influential factors including domestic final demand, overseas export demand, intermediate input, intermediate demand import and final demand import. The results indicate that (1) the shipbuilding industry has a significant interdependence, which has showed the characteristics of high integration and interaction. Among the three different regions, the degree of interdependence of the Yangtze River Delta is most significant, followed by the Pearl River Delta and the Circum-Bohai region. (2) The interaction and integration of the shipbuilding industry have the trend of synchronous development. From the initial S-shapes of coastal distribution, the interaction gradually expands to inland cities radially. (3) The dependence of the shipbuilding industry has reduced but the self-supporting effect continuously strengthened, and industrialization is accelerating, which indicates the shipbuilding industry will further promote the optimization of industrial structure. (4) Shipbuilding industry has been expanding a lot, the main causes of changes in industrial structure are different, and the effect of intermediate inputs change plays a significant role in the Yangtze River Delta. In the Pearl River Delta, it is the changes effect of foreign export demand that counts. However, it is the effect of the final demand that makes contribution to the industrial structure change in Circum-Bohai-Sea region.