考虑参数不确定性对船舶封闭舱室火灾人员生命的影响

摘要

为更准确地评估船舶封闭舱室火灾中危险时间的来临,利用随机抽样的方法对不确定性参数进行抽取,计算封闭舱室火灾中氧气浓度、烟气层高度、烟气层温度达到危险值的时间分布,进一步分析不确定性参数对船舶封闭舱室火灾危险时间来临的影响.%In order to accurately evaluate the danger time in enclosed cabin fire,the paper employs the random method to extract uncertainty parameter,calculate the danger time distribution of the oxygen concentration,smoke layer height and temperature in the enclosed cabin fire.Further analyzing the uncertainty of parameters' influence on danger time in the enclosed cabin fire.