全面二孩政策对我国人口结构的影响

摘要

Since the beginning of 21st century,the population structure has gone through a historical change.Undeniably China's population is now aging.Based on the data released in 2010 National Censuses,we forecasted and analyzed the population,labor force and population structure.The result shows that the aging problem can hardly resolved by the Universal two-child policy,neither is the lack of labor force supply.Thus we believe that further methods should be taken on multiple fronts,thus as enhance the public services,optimize the sanatoria industry,and other procreating promoting policies.%进入21世纪以来,中国的人口结构已经发生历史性转折,逐渐进入老龄化社会.基于2010年第6次全国人口普查的详细数据,以无政策情景作为参照,对全面放开二孩政策后我国的人口总数、劳动人口数量以及人口结构等进行了预测和分析.结果发现,单一的全面二孩政策并不能从根本上解决我国劳动人口供给不足、老龄化渐趋严重、居民生育意愿降低等问题,应该考虑从多方面采取措施以弥补人口结构变化带来的诸多问题.总体来看,提高公共服务水平与质量,大力发展养老产业以及适时调整生育政策等途径可以成为有效改善我国人口结构问题的重要举措.