全面二孩政策下人口结构转变对宏观经济的长期影响

摘要

This paper mainly analyzes the two models of population growth under the Universal Two-Child policy.Through the forecast model of the age cohort,using the trigonometric weighted average method to deal with the low-frequency endogenous relationship between population and long macroeconomic variables, this paper analyzed the impact of population growth on long-term macroeconomy under the Universal Two-Child policy.The results shown that the effect of population growth on real GDP growth rates,savings,investment and working time is obvious,but the effect of population growth on interest rates and inflation is very complicated.These results provide the evidence for the further policy research about the supporting policy for the Universal Two-Child policy,such as avoiding birth accumulation caused by the Universal Two-Child policy; providing welfare support the family with the second baby to avoid the negative effect on the economic to avoid the errors of demographic single factor of macroeconomic changes.%通过队列模型预测中国出生人口变化及未来人口结构;并采用三角加权法处理人口结构数据,以8个不同人口结构组别作为内生变量利用VAR模型实证分析了人口结构转变对宏观经济变量的长期影响.研究发现,全面二孩政策有利于中国出生人口的提高,并且包含生育意愿的生育行为更符合当前中国家庭的生育观念.同时人口结构转变对长期宏观经济变量影响各有特点.相关研究为完善人口政策及相关政策提供翔实的佐证,并从避免出生人口堆积、为二孩生育提供相应保障措施和避免人口单一因素决定论等方面提出建议.