基于STIRFDT模型的海洋交通运输业碳排放预测研究

摘要

In this paper we use the thought of the classic STIRPAT model for carbon emissions for reference, and propose the accounting STIRFDT model of marine traffic transportation. On this basis, using the Chinese ocean' s related data, we estimate the parameters of the mode. Finally we make the scenario analysis based on the data of Chinas ocean transportation , forecast the carbon emissions numerical and peak of China' s ocean transportation and put forward the suggestions to cut emissions.%在借鉴经典碳排放的STIRPAT模型的思想的基础上,提出核算海洋交通运输业的STIRFDT模型,在此基础上,运用中国远洋相关数据对模型参数进行估计,以我国海洋交通运输业的数据,运用情景模拟,对我国海洋交通运输业的碳排放的数值及峰值进行预测,并提出减排的对策建议.