基于未确知测度理论的船厂接单风险测度研究

摘要

受全球金融危机的影响，船厂接单风险再次笼罩整个船舶行业，这些风险较为复杂且具有较大的不确定性，对此提出未确知测度理论来测度经营者因信息掌握不全条件下的风险，以期为决策者作出接单决策提供科学依据。对未确知测度理论的概念和应用现状进行概述，分析该理论在接单风险测度中的可行性，并依据1-4-5思维方法建立船厂接单风险测度指标体系，构建船厂接单风险测度未确知测度模型；最后，通过案例进行有效性和实用性分析。%Affected by the global financial crisis,shipbuilding order risks again envelop the entire ship industry,which are more complicated and have greater uncertainty.Therefore,this paper puts forward a theory of the unascertained measure to solve the plight of the operators due to incomplete grasp of the information,which can not be objectively and accurately measured for risk prediction.The paper provides the scientific basis for decision-making.The paper overviews the concept of this theory and application status,deeply analyzes its practicability,establishes the index system of the yards single risk early warning according to the 1 -4-5 thinking method,and constructs the unascertained measure model of the yards sin-gle risk early warning.Finally,according to a case analysis,the theory verifies the effectiveness and practicality.