中国区域碳强度时空演变与影响因素分析

摘要

基于中国2003-2014年30个省区的面板数据,构建邻接、距离、经济三种空间权重矩阵,采用空间统计方法和空间滞后模型对我国省区碳强度的时空演变与影响因素进行分析.研究结果表明,在样本期间,中国碳强度在省区尺度上具有显著的正空间相关性且逐渐增强,同时,碳强度的空间集聚呈现“北高南低”的特征;空间面板计量结果显示,环境规制和煤炭消耗对碳强度具有显著的驱动效应和正向空间溢出效应;经济增长和技术创新对碳强度具有显著的抑制效应和负向空间溢出效应.%Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2014,this paper established three kinds of spatial weight matrices—neighbor,distance and economic.Spatial statistical method and spatial lag model were used to analyze the space-time evolution and influence factors of regional carbon intensity in China.The results show that China's carbon intensity has a significant positive spatial correlation and is gradually strengthened at provincial scale in the sample period.At the same time,the carbon intensity of spatial agglomeration presents the characteristic of "north high,south low".The spatial panel econometric model shows that environmental regulation and coal consumption have driving effects and positive spatial spill effects on the carbon intensity.Economic growth and technical progress have restraint effect and negative spatial spill effects on the carbon intensity.