基于中断风险下的冷链库存订货策略研究

摘要

Cold chain disruption risk is a kind of extreme risk, it's important to make good ordering and inventory strategies for the cold chain disruption risk combined with the flexible strategy and the characteristic of cold chain inventory investment;To resist the disruption risk and make the cold chain system optimal efficiency, build a cold chain system consists of supplier, third square cold chain logistics companies and retailers, according to the upstream supplier of cold chain system disruption risk probability, considering the operation cost of cold storage, calculate the upstream order distribution;cold chain inventory changes described interrupt state with the Markov state transition, obtained the best quantity of downstream retailers;finally combined with the particularity of cold chain by example make the inventory and ordering strategy of cold chain disruption risks.%冷链中断风险是一种极端风险,结合中断风险弹性策略以及冷链库存投资大特点,库存订货对于冷链应对中断风险有重要意义;为抵御中断风险并使得冷链系统效率最优,构建一个包含供应商,第三方冷链物流公司和零售商的冷链系统,考虑上游供应商中断风险概率不同及冷库运行成本,求出上游订单分配量;用马尔可夫状态转移描述冷链中断状态下库存变化特点,求出下游零售商最佳保有量;最后通过算例求出冷链中断风险的库存订货策略.