基于信息加工过程的管制人因差错概率量化方法研究

摘要

为量化管制人因差错概率,基于信息加工过程设计管制人因差错量化工具,将管制任务中的差错界定为错报、虚报、漏报三种差错,并量化其发生概率.结果表明:信息加工过程中的人因差错概率数据经Box-Cox转换后服从正态分布.根据正态分布代表点与损失函数的关系划分出5级等级标准.管制人因差错量化工具及方法的设计能够有效鉴别岗位人员发生错报、虚报、漏报的风险等级,对管制员选拔以及安全风险评估具有一定的借鉴意义.%To quantify the probability of human error for air traffic controllers, a tool to quantify human error was designed based on information processing process.Human errors in work task were divided into third king of error, including error, false and miss, and the probability was quantified.The results showed that the dates about human error probability of cognitive task in information process obey normal distribution after Box-Cox transformation.Five grade level standard was built according to the relationship between the representative point and loss function of normal distribution.The measurement tool and quantification method of human error probability for air traffic controllers contribute to assess the risk level of error, false and miss of personnel.It has a certain significance for the selection of controllers and safety risk assessment.