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济南低碳生态城市案例量化分析

         

摘要

Low-carbon eco-city development is one of the key approaches taken by the Chinese government to achieve its international commitment of reducing carbon intensity by 40% to 45% by 2020, as well as other national targets. Cities have planned and implemented various measures to fulfill these goals; however, most of the plans lacked explicit targets, metrics, and implementation mechanisms, and strategies undertaken are often too vague and piecemeal, therefore hindering their effectiveness. To fill these gaps and significantly accelerate the speed of developing low-carbon and eco-city plans, and to facilitate selection and implementation of sound policy apparatus at a large scale, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has developed multiple tools based on both international and Chinese best practices. This paper introduces the application of two of the tools in Jinan, China. The Benchmarking and Energy Saving Tool for Low Carbon Cities (BEST Cities) focuses on energy savings and carbon emissions reduction potential and strategies. The Eco and Low-carbon Indicator Tool for Evaluating Cities (ELITE Cities) has a broader scope that includes air, water, and land use. These tools help cities benchmark and evaluate performance, track progress, and provide practical and scientific prescriptions. This paper sheds light on understanding where a city falls on the path to sustainability, quantifies the city's sectoral energy- and carbon-saving potentials, and reveals challenges and barriers a city may have in implementing the tools and policies. The prioritized policy recommendations made are based on the carbon savings impact, the city's capacity to act, and the government's program costs.%低碳生态城市发展是中国政府为实现到2020年将单位GDP碳强度降低40-45%的国际承诺以及国家发展的其他目标的关键举措。很多城市均作出相应规划并实施各种措施,以期实现这些目标。然而,绝大多数规划都缺乏明确的目标、指标以及实现机制。它们所选取的战略措施通常太过模糊和零碎,严重阻碍了规划内容的有效性。为了填补这些空白,极大提升低碳环保城市规划的速度,为大范围完善政策的选择以及执行提供便利,劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室根据国际以及中国最佳实践制定了多种工具。本文将介绍中国济南所采用的两种工具。“最佳城市”暨低碳城市的基准测试以及节能(BEST Cities)工具主要着眼于节能、碳排放量降低的潜力以及策略。“精英城市”暨评估城市的环保和低碳指标(ELITE Cities)工具的涉及面更为宽泛,包括空气、水以及土地的使用。这些工具使得各个城市能够对自身情况作出衡量和评估,追踪进度,提供科学实用的政策建议。本论文将深化对城市如何走上可持续发展道路的理解,对城市如何完成对城市行业节能减碳潜力的量化,如何面对工具以及政策施行过程当中可能遇到的挑战以及障碍具有一定的指导意义。根据减碳影响力、城市的行为能力以及政府的项目预算,本文按照优先顺序提出了政策建议。

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