基于组合权重的地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故风险评价

摘要

In order to assess risk of crowd crushing and trampling accidents in subway stations,using the AHP and entropy method to determine combined weights containing subjective and objective factors,this paper establishes a fuzzy matter-element evaluation model based on the fuzzy set theory,and calculates the closeness of each evaluation index and standard solution.Then,the paper takes the risk of eight stations of a subway line as the matter-element, and composes the combined fuzzy matter-element with corresponding fuzzy quantity values of evaluation indexes. Finally,the risks of crowd crushing and trampling auidents of each station are identified and sorted.The results show that there is a great difference in the risk of crowd crushing and trampling accidents at different stations,and population density and reverse hedge ratio are the most important factors.Evaluating the risk of subway station stampede accidents helps prevent accidents and improve the safety management level of subway stations.%为评价地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故发生的风险，采用层次分析法和熵权法确定包含主、客观因素的组合权重，在建立的模糊物元评价模型的基础上，计算各评价指标与标准方案的贴近度，并选取北京地铁不同线路中的8个站点作为评价风险这个物元的事物，与每个车站各项评价指标对应的模糊量值组成复合模糊物元，对各地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故的风险进行识别与排序。结果表明：这8个地铁车站发生拥挤踩踏事故的风险差别较大，而人群密度和逆行对冲人数比是造成地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故最重要的两个因素。对地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故的风险进行评价，将有助于预防其事故的发生，提高地铁车站安全管理水平。