后危机时代中国房价的波动引起了广泛关注，如何利用以货币政策为代表的宏观调控抑制高房价透支未来经济发展的程度，成为当前管理层高度关注的焦点。本文建立了新凯恩斯模型框架分析房价波动如何通过流动性约束影响消费，从而揭示了中央银行货币政策与房价的财富效应之间的关系，得出最优利率规则中房价的最优权重随预期通胀、产出缺口、房价和名义利率而变动的结论。通过实证分析本文进而认为，利率规则比货币供应量更能迅速调控房价的增长和居民消费的扩张。中国房价上涨的财富效应虽然比较明显，但流动性约束的作用机制需要一个过程才能显现，利率调控的效果也有一个量变到质变的过程，从而在理论上为中央银行制定应对房价的利率政策提供了一定启示。%The volatility of housing prices in the post-crisis period has aroused great attention. The authority is focusing on how to use macro-control measures such as monetary policy to avoid the negative effect of high housing prices on economic development. This paper sets up a new Keynesian model to analyze how the housing prices influence consumption through liquidity constraints, illustrates the relationship between monetary policy and the wealth effect of housing prices, and comes to the conclusion that the optimal weight of housing price in the interest rate rule changes according to the expected inflation, output gap, housing price and nominal interest rate. The empirical results show that the interest rate rule works better than the money supply. Although the wealth effect is obvious in China, the mechanism of liquidity constraints still needs a process, which provides inspirations for the central bank to set an interest rate rule for housing prices.
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