欧盟15国经济衰退的实证分析

摘要

本文基于欧盟15国1990—2013年的季度数据，实证分析了经济衰退与政府债务总额、进出口、失业率、薪资总额以及房价等指标之间的关系，结果发现：（1）欧盟15国在经济衰退阶段的平均振幅和累积损失分别为3．38％和5．28％，平均波长约为4个季度；（2）欧洲在2002、2008和2011年分别发生了大范围的经济同步衰退现象，政府债务和房价也随之同步变动；（3）出口、薪资总额和房价与经济衰退存在1％水平上的显著相关关系。%According to EU-15 quarterly data from 1990 Q1 to 2013 Q4,coupled with chart analysis and regression analysis,the paper investigates the relation between economic recession and gross government debt,exports,imports, unemployment rate,wages and salaries,and house price.The results reveal that:(1)the average amplitudes and cumulative loss of EU-15 are 3.38% and 5.28% respectively,and average duration is about 4 quarters;(2)the year 2002,2008 and 2011 were experienced globally economic synchronized recessions,and government debt and house price are also changed at the same time;(3)exports,wages and salaries,and house price are significantly correlated with recessions at 1% level.