1949-2013年，我国粮食生产刚好实现5个亿t台阶的跨越。本文基于粮食产量计算公式，厘出5个产量构成因素，并运用因素分解法，评估各自对亿t增产台阶的贡献量。研究结果表明，在5个亿t台阶期中，作物单产提升始终是最主要贡献因素，以1978年为界，其对总产的贡献总体呈先增后减态势；复种指数、粮食作物品种结构以正贡献为主，至新近台阶期，两者贡献程度均明显放大，其中复种贡献量已接近于作物单产的贡献量。粮作比调整始终是最主要减产因素，耕地面积也以负贡献为主，尤其1978年后，两者负影响均较前期有明显放大，至新近台阶期达最高。结合我国粮食增产台阶的因子演变过程，探讨了未来粮食增产的可能性与可行性。%China has just achieved the iffth grain increment from 1949 to 2013 and the grain output reached 0.5 billion metric tons in 2013. Applying the grain production calculating model, this paper identified five significant factors contributing to the step growth in China’s grain production. Results show that crop yield improvement is the main contributor to the growth, exerting upward effect before 1978 but downward thereafter. Multiple cropping index and composition of crop varieties mainly have positive effects which were signiifcantly enlarged on the latest increment. The contribution from multiple cropping was even close to that of crop yield. The two negative contributors include grain crop share and cultivated areas, increasingly lowered grain production after 1978 and imposed the most negative effect on the iffth increment. This paper also discussed the possibility and feasibility of future grain increase.
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