农业发展在政策减贫过程中的中介效应研究

摘要

通过培育农业等支柱性产业从而形成持续内生发展能力已经成为减贫的重要途径.农业发展在公共政策与减贫间架起了一座桥梁,农业发展呈现出明显的中介效应,公共政策通过农业发展这一中介变量有效推动了减贫进程.按照公共政策促进农业发展,农业发展推动贫困减缓这一逻辑脉络,构建了公共政策、农业发展与减贫效应三大系统及其测度指标体系,通过建立状态空间模型,分阶段探究了2000-2015年公共政策减贫过程中农业发展在各时期的减贫作用强度及其动态演变趋势,并对农业发展在政策扶贫过程中的中介效应进行了验证.结果表明,农业发展对政策扶贫的中介效应非常显著,公共政策的减贫效应中约有45.25%的贡献来自于农业发展所产生的中介效应;单纯的公共政策对于贫困减缓和农业发展的影响呈现下降趋势,而农业发展对于农村贫困减缓的作用则逐年增强.研究表明,我国多元化的减贫体系已经基本形成,内生式减贫机制逐渐健全并已经发挥作用,公共政策对农业发展和减贫的促进作用呈边际递减态势.因此,首先要加强对农业尤其是特色农业的扶持,以更好地发挥其在减贫过程中的中介效应,其次促进当前我国扶贫攻坚战略应尽快转向换挡,千方百计推动已经形成的内生减贫系统有效运转.%Promoting some key industries, such as agriculture, became an important way to reduce poverty and to maintain a sustainable economic development. Agricultural industry built a bridge between public policy and poverty alleviation and showed some significant mediating effects: public policy promoting the process of poverty reduction effectively through agricultural development. By establishing a state space model, which incorporates three evaluating index systems, including public policy, agricultural development, and poverty alleviation, this paper evaluated the effects and trends of the poverty alleviation through agricultural development at different stages from 2000 to 2015 and also verified the mediating effects of agricultural development in the process of poverty alleviation. Results show that 1) the mediating effects of agricultural development on poverty alleviation is very significant, which contributes about 45.25%; 2) the impacts of public policy on poverty alleviation and agricultural showed a downward trend, but the effect of agricultural development on rural poverty alleviation is increasing year by year; and 3) the diversification of poverty reduction system has been basically formed in China. In addition, this research also found that the endogenous poverty reduction mechanism has been gradually improved and has been working effectively. The promotion of public policy on agricultural and poverty reduction has in the trend of diminishing marginal effects. To enhance the agricultural role of poverty alleviation, this paper suggests to strengthen the support of agriculture, especially the agricultural products with unique characteristics, and to shift the strategy of poverty alleviation to endogenous development mode.