农产品主产区居民生活质量评估与政策调控研究——以吉林省德惠市为例

摘要

农产品主产区是中国主体功能区规划中保障农产品供给安全的重要区域,维护该区域城乡居民生活质量稳步提升是主体功能区政策制定的重要着眼点之一.以吉林省德惠市为案例区,基于Vensim系统构建反映农产品主产区居民生活质量及主要影响要素关系的系统动力学模型,并通过调整财政转移支付、人口转移及农业补贴等方面的参数,模拟了单项政策变化对居民生活质量的影响程度及作用方向.结果显示,基准情景下德惠市和吉林省居民生活质量分别由研究初期的5.8和8.5提高到研究期末的30.9和41.6,居民生活质量差距持续存在,通过调整财政参数、人口参数和农业参数德惠市居民生活质量在2025年最优仿真值可达到43.2、43.1和31.8,表明财政政策和人口政策能够实现德惠市居民生活质量赶超吉林省平均水平,而单纯依托农业补贴政策助推居民生活质量的效果非常有限.因此,提出加大财政转移支付力度、加速人口城镇化进程、健全农产品主产区利益补偿机制是提高居民生活质量的有效策略.%Major agricultural production areas play a key role in maintaining national supply security of agricultural products and promoting the life quality in those areas is the important viewpoint from national policymakers of major function region planning. Taking Dehui City of Jilin Province as an example and applying the Vensim program, this paper built a system dynamic (SD) model, consisting of life quality and its main impact factors in major agricultural production areas, to simulate the degree and the direction of effects of policy changes on the life quality by adjusting the variables such as financial transfer payment, population transfer, and agricultural subsidy. Results show that the gap between the resident life quality in Dehui City and that in Jilin Province under the baseline scenario exists with increases for both from 5.8 and 8.5 at the beginning of the study period to 30.9 and 41.6 in the end of the study period respectively. The simulation values of the resident life quality of Dehui City will reach 43.2, 43.1 and 31.8 by adjusting ifnancial transfer payment coefifcient, population outmigration coefifcient, and agricultural subsidy coefifcient respectively. Under the former two scenarios, the resident life quality of Dehui City can exceed the average of Jilin province. However, the single agricultural subsidy policy has very little inlfuence on improving the resident life quality of Dehui City. According to the SD model simulation results, this paper suggests some effective countermeasures to raise the life quality, including to increase ifnancial transfer payments, to accelerate urbanization process, and to improve the compensation mechanism of major agricultural production areas.