具有参数修正的灰关联加权组合风速预测方法

摘要

In order to mitigate or avoid adverse effects of wind farm on power system,and to improve competition ability of wind farm in electricity market,it is necessary to forecast wind speed exactly.Based on grey system theory,this paper proposes a grey relational weighing combination model with parameter modification to forecast wind speed.The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated by a test in a certain area.The results show that this method is useful both in theory and in practice.%为了有效地减轻或避免风电场对电力系统的不利影响,提高风电场在电力市场中的竞争能力,需要对风速进行准确的预测.文章基于灰色系统理论,提出了具有参数修正的灰色关联加权组合预测方法,对风速进行了预测研究.通过对某一地区的风速预测,验证了该方法的有效性,该研究具有一定的理论价值和实际应用价值.