风光联合并网引起电压随机波动的概率评估

摘要

This paper presents a statistical assessment approach for voltage random fluctuation resulting from joint grid integration of wind and PV power. Considering the correlation between wind and PV power,the proposed approach deals with the uncertainty nature of the power of wind-PV hybrid system(WPHS)based on Copula theory,and de⁃scribes the status of the grid via Thevenin statistical equivalence. The voltage deviation at the point of common coupling and its occurrence probability are both estimated by taking into account the uncertainty nature of WPHS and the status of the grid. A case study indicates that the proposed approach is feasible,and the complementary nature of wind and PV power contributes to the improvement of voltage random fluctuation caused by joint integration.%该文提出一种风光联合并网引起电压随机波动的概率评估方法。该方法考虑风电、光伏出力的相关性，基于Copula理论处理风光联合系统出力的不确定性；计及电网元件的可用度，利用戴维南概率等值描述电网的运行状态。考虑风光联合系统出力的不确定性和电网的运行状态，估计PCC点的电压偏差及其发生的概率。算例分析表明，所提方法是可行的，风电、光伏之间的互补性有助于改善风光联合并网引起的电压随机波动。