草地螟一代幼虫最佳防治期气象预报模型

摘要

Studying the relationship between occurrence regularity of various stages of the meadow moth(Loxostege sticticalis) and meteorological factors is a good way to prevent the meadow moth effectively and alleviate possible disaster losses.Based on the correlation analysis between spawning and hatching time of overwintering generation of adults,development times of 1 to 3-age larvae,the duration from the first day of peak catch to 3-age larvae and meteorological factors and comparison analysis of these factors at typical years,we developed a forecast model on the duration from the first day of peak catch to 3-age larvae by using multiple linear regression of optimal subset.According to the duration from the first day of peak catch to 3-age larvae,the study determined the optimal controlling period of first generation larvae of the meadow moth.Average errors between simulated and observed values were about 1.2 days.These results are of importance to direct farmers to prevent the meadow moth,improve control effect and alleviate losses as much as possible.%开展草地螟（Loxostege sticticalis）各虫态发生规律及其与气象因子的关系和指标研究,有利于更好地开展草地螟的防治工作,最大限度减轻灾害损失。本研究通过相关分析和典型年份对比分析方法,详细分析了气象因子对草地螟成虫产卵孵化期、1～3龄幼虫发育期持续天数的影响,在此基础上,采用最优子集多元回归方法,建立持续天数预报模型,通过预报成虫蛾峰至3龄幼虫期持续天数来确定草地螟一代幼虫最佳防治期。模型通过0.01信度检验,回代检验平均误差仅为1.2d。草地螟最佳防治期预报结果对于指导农民及时开展防治工作,提高防治效果,实现最大限度减轻灾害损失具有重要意义。