穿过林区的供电线路所处地理环境复杂,输电通道山火灾害频发.为研究山火条件下林区输电通道风险评估问题,对四川省凉山州地区某重要负荷的两条输电通道所经过的多个地区的气象数据按时间顺序进行统计.利用森林火险气象等级计算山火发生概率,利用长空气间隙击穿理论计算山火条件下输电线路故障概率,进而建立了具有时空分布特征的山火条件下输电通道风险评估模型,并用算例验证了所提方法的有效性.还对一条输电通道故障,潮流转移至另一条输电通道后的线路运行情况进行了分析,并根据结果提出了相应的降风险措施.%The geographical environment around power transmission channels which pass through the forest is complicated and forest fire occurs frequently. In order to study the problem of risk assessment of power transmission channels in forest region, meteorological data of multiple areas in Liangshan Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province where two power transmission channels of an important load pass through is collected and analyzed according to the chronological order. The occurrence probability of forest fire is calculated by forest fire danger weather ratings, and the fault probability of transmission lines under forest fire condition is calculated by breakdown characteristics of long air gaps theory. The temporal and spatial risk evaluation model of power transmission channels under forest fire condition is built. The validity of the proposed method is verified through a case analysis. Besides, the operation conditions of transmission lines are analyzed after power flow transferring due to one power transmission channel breaks down. Finally, some risk-mitigation measures are proposed according to the results.
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