混合所有制模式下基于电力公司视角的配电网投资效益评估

摘要

依据相关政策文件,结合增量配电项目投资运营特点和效益测算参数边界,基于项目总成本费用估算和项目利润与利润分配情况,研究混合所有制模式下基于电力公司方视角的投资效益分析模型,并采用股东方资本金净现值(NPV)、内部收益率(IRR)和动态投资回收期等财务指标评估在拟定股权方案下的电力公司实际收益水平.另外,在确定性效益测算基础上,考虑配电电量、配电电价和综合线损率等参数的波动性,提出基于蒙特卡洛法的全寿命周期投资效益风险评估方法,量化分析不确定性条件下的投资效益情况.案例分析表明,所提模型及方法可为增量配电项目投资者提供一定决策参考.%In this paper,according to the relevant policy documents combined with the characteristics of incremental distribution networks investment & operation and the boundary of benefit calculation parameters,based on the total cost and profit distribution of investment projects,an investment benefit analysis model based on power companies' perspective is proposed,and used to assess the actual income level of power companies under an equity plan in terms of financial indicators such as stock capital NPV (net present value),IRR(internal rate of return) and dynamic investment recovery period.In addition,based on the deterministic benefit calculation,considering parameters fluctuation such as distribution electricity demand,price and comprehensive line loss rate,a risk assessment method of the life cycle investment benefit based on Monte Carlo method is proposed to quantitatively analyze the investment benefit with uncertainties in calculation parameters.The case analysis shows that the model & method proposed in this paper is effective and practical,and could be used to provide some reference for incremental distribution project investors.