Stress Testing of Delaying Investment on Power Infrastructure in Context of Mixed Ownership Reform

摘要

In recent years, the China government proposes many policies on the reform of mixed ownership, which provides guidance for the mixed ownership reform of power grid enterprises. Reform of mixed ownership is an irresistible trend. Based on this, it is important to study the risks faced by power grid enterprises in the process of mixed ownership reform. The traditional risk assessment methods cannot effectively estimate the possibility of extreme events. Stress testing shows the excellent performance on extremely environmental risk measures such as financial crisis, which plays an indispensable role in modern bank risk assessment. It also becomes an important supplement to traditional tools such as VaR. This paper adopts the method of financial stress testing, and focuses on potential economic and security risks faced by China's power grid enterprises in the process of mixed ownership reform. Taking risk analysis of delaying investment of power infrastructure as an example, we first carry out the qualitative analysis and then conduct the stress testing including the sensitivity analysis. We screen out key risk indicators through sensitivity stress testing. On this basis, we investigate the comprehensive influence of key pressure factors on pressure variables and the specific affects in extreme cases through scenario analysis. The results show that the stress testing method can directly reflect the degree of risk exposure in the future power market. It also can be an effective tool for risk assessment for power grid enterprises during the mixed ownership reform.