气象环境对电网负荷的影响因素分析

摘要

The load of a district power network is easily affect⁃ed by various meteorological factors, which cause many uncertain problems in the load forecast. In order to maximumly reduce the pre⁃diction deviations caused by meteorological factors during the load forecast, the influences of meteorological factors on the power load are analysed. Based on a large number of historical data, the method of grey correlation analysis is used to analyze the correlation between meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity and wind speed and the load characteristics, as a result, the dominant meteorological factors affecting load are identified. The sensitivity between grid load and meteorological factors is studied by the polynomial curve regres⁃sion analysis. The influence law of cumulative heat effect on load is studied with the consideration of the cumulative effect, and the cor⁃rection formula of temperature is calculated in the paper to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.%针对地区电网负荷易受多种气象因素影响，负荷预测中存在诸多不确定性问题，研究了气象因素对电网负荷的影响，最大程度减少由气象因素造成的负荷预测偏差。应用灰色关联度分析方法，基于大量历史数据，剖析气温、湿度、风速等气象因素与负荷特性变化的关联度，得到对负荷变化产生主要影响的气象因素。在此基础上，为了量化分析主要气象因素对负荷影响的程度，采用支持向量回归的方法得出日特征气象因素、实时气象因素对负荷变化的的灵敏度模型。同时，考虑到气温的累积效应对负荷特性变化的重要影响，研究气温累积效应对负荷的影响规律，得到气温累积效应修正公式，并用实例证明对历史数据经累积效应修正公式进行修正后，修正数据能够切实提高负荷预测的准确性。