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我国的“刘易斯拐点”研究--诠释、判断与反思

         

摘要

“刘易斯拐点”预示一国将经历劳动力由过剩到短缺、城乡收入差距不断缩小、由农业大国向工业国转变的转型过程。本文通过利用马克思劳动力价值实现程度的相关理论对我国劳动力供求状况的分析,证实了我国农业内部还存在剩余劳动力以及2004年开始显现出的“民工荒”的事实。但我国日益严重的“民工荒”浪潮并未能形成与城乡收入差距缩小、农民市民化之间的和谐互动,我国并未能出现与二元经济模型预测相一致的转型。从根本上讲,我国并未出现“刘易斯拐点”。%“Lewis turning point” indicates that a country will experience the transition process that labor is changing from surplus to shortage , the income gap between urban and rural areas is diminishing , the economic is transformed from based agricultural to base on industry .The analysis of labor supply and demand situation from Marxist theory about the degree of realization of labor value , the paper confirmed the facts that there exist the agricultural surplus labor , and the shortage of migrant workers start from 2004.However, the serious shortage of migrant workers failed result in a harmonious interaction of narrowing the urban-rural gap and population urbanization . The transition based on the dual economy model predicts doesn ’ t appear in our country .Fundamentally ,“Lewis turning point” doesn’ t appear in our country .

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