盐城市耕地资源供需态势与粮食安全对策研究

摘要

The vast population and limited farmland is our important national situation. The cultivated land problems are related with food security, social stability. Yancheng City is located at the north of Jiangsu Province, which is a major grain producing area of it. Its farmland protection impacts on the province food security directly. This article selects 2000 to 2009 statistics from Statistical Yearbook for Jiangsu Province and use Statistical Product and Service Solutions to analyze problems. Then on the total demand of food, this article takes a variety of programs to predict Yancheng food security to the cultivated land up to the year 2020. Finally, it is based on the law of supply and demand of Yancheng food security situation in 2020 and put forward several suggestions to strengthen the protection of farmland, which expects to give some reasonable suggestions to use and protect our cultivated land.%人多地少是我国的一个重要国情。耕地问题直接关系着粮食安全和社会稳定。位于苏北地区的盐城市，是江苏省的主要粮食产区，盐城市的耕地保护直接影响到全省的粮食安全问题。文章选取2000年到2009年相关数据，在对盐城市耕地变化趋势分析的基础上，利用社会统计分析软件包SPSS，对盐城市2020年的耕地供给量进行预测。之后基于粮食需求总量，采用多种方案预测了盐城市2020年的耕地需求量。文章最后基于供求规律得出了盐城市2020年粮食安全状况，并提出加强耕地保护的几点建议，以期为有效地利用和保护耕地资源提供决策参考。