目的 分析乳腺癌发病率和病死率的趋势,预测未来5年乳腺癌发病率和病死率水平.方法 搜集2006—2015年哈尔滨市南岗区乳腺癌发病死亡登记数据,计算发病率、病死率、调整发病率、调整病死率,利用Join Point分析10年间恶性肿瘤发病、死亡趋势,并采用Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian模型预测2016—2020年乳腺癌的发病率、病死率.结果 南岗区女性乳腺癌的平均诊断年龄为(53.93±11.75)岁,各年度平均诊断年龄比较,差异无统计学意义(P﹥0.05),但呈逐年增加趋势(P﹤0.01).2006—2015年,女性乳腺癌的发病率、中标发病率、世标发病率分别为59.14/10万、41.67/10万、39.18/10万;女性乳腺癌的病死率、中标病死率和世标病死率分别为12.66/10万、8.38/10万、8.30/10万.乳腺癌世标发病率呈显著上升趋势(APC=5.3％,95％CI:3.3％～7.3％),世标病死率无明显变化(APC=-0.8％,95％CI:-3.6％～2.1％).预测2020年乳腺癌的发病率和病死率将分别达到91.20/10万和15.24/10万.结论 南岗区女性乳腺癌发病率和病死率呈逐年增长趋势,预测未来5年发病率和病死率仍呈增加趋势.%Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of breast cancer and to predict the trend in the next 5 years. Method We collected the incidence and mortality data of breast cancer from Nangang District Cancer Registry Database between 2006 and 2015. The incidence, mortality, adjusted incidence, mortality were calculated, and the Join-Point analysis was used to analyze the trend of the incidence and mortality for malignant tumors in 10 years, the inci-dence and mortality of breast cancer between 2016 and 2020 was predicted by Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian model. Re-sult The average age at diagnosis for women in Nangang district was (53.93±11.75) years old. There was no significant difference in the mean age in the ten years period (P>0.05), but an increasing trend was observed year by year (P<0.01). During the period of 2006—2015, the incidence rate of breast cancer was 59.14/105, with the age-standardized rate of inci-dence by Chinese standard population at 41.67/105 and with the age-standardized rate of incidence by world standard pop-ulation at 39.18/105;the mortality rate, age-standardized rate of mortality by Chinese standard population and age-stan-dardized rate of morality by world standard population were 12.66/105, 8.33/105 and 8.30/105, respectively. The age-stan-dardized rate of incidence by world standard population showed significantly uptrend from 2006 to 2015 (APC=5.3％, 95％CI:3.3％-7.3％), and there was no significant change in the age-standardized rate of mortality by world standard pop-ulation (APC=-0.8％, 95％CI:-3.6％-2.1％). The incidence and mortality rate would reach 91.20/105 and 15.24/105 by 2020. Conclusion The incidence and mortality rate of breast cancer in Nangang district are increasing annually, it is pre-dicted that the incidence and mortality will continue to elevate in the next 5 years.
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