基于生存分析的边境地区人口外流及影响研究

摘要

本文依据国家计生委2011年对吉林省中朝边境地区人口流动的抽样调查数据，运用非参数及半参数的生存分析模型对外流人口特征、流动影响因素进行研究，同时分析了人口外流对该地区经济及社会发展的影响。实证结果表明：年轻、受过良好教育的个体是外流人口中的主力，且韩国为其主要流入地；民族因素显著的影响个体选择，但性别影响并不显著；最后，尽管外出个体汇款对该地区GDP有一定贡献，但劳动力的严重流失不仅抑制了当地经济长期发展，同时也导致了人口老龄化等社会问题。因此，为了发展地方特色经济，当地政府在为吸引高端人才、招商引资创造条件的同时，还应采取措施避免受过良好教育的劳动力进一步外流，以期促进当地经济持续发展。%With the population outflow data surveyed by the National Population and Family Planning Commission in 2011 ,the paper though nonparametric and semi-parametric approaches of survival analysis examines the characteristics and determi-nants of outflow population and research its impact on the social and economic development in the border between China and Korea,The results show that educated and skilled young people constituted most of those emigrating and their destination was South Korea;Nationality was a significant factor for migration, but gender was not. Although young outflow population with e-ducated and skilled had contribution to local GDP,it also led to Aging of Population,and Inhibits the long-term development of the local economy. So the local government should encourage foreign investment ,try to attract and retain young skilled peo-ple for future economic development.