单船动态风险评估模糊推理系统的设计与模拟

摘要

对在航船舶进行动态的风险评估,分析影响船舶安全航行的风险因素,构建了船舶风险评估模型,定义了各项风险因素的隶属函数,并参考专家经验建立模糊推理规则.按照建立的模型,在MATLAB平台上运用模糊推理系统构建风险评估系统,并应用该系统对在航船舶进行定量风险评估.实例证明,该系统能够合理地评估在航船舶的整体风险水平,为驾驶员决策提供参考,具有应用潜力.%Aiming at the dynamic risk assessment of sailing ships, the risk factors affecting ship navigation safety are analyzed, a ship risk assessment model is constructed and the subordinate functions of risk factors are defined. The fuzzy reasoning rules are set up based on expert experiences. Fuzzy inference system is adopted to build a risk assessment system on MATLAB platform with the constructed model, and quantitative risk assessments for sailing ships are carried out by using the risk assessment system. It is proved by actual examples that this system can evaluate overall risk level of sailing ships, outputing justified results. The system can be helpful for mariners and have prospect of application.